The United States will step further away from its influence in the region, and Turkey, which has so far remained out of most of the conflict, will be forced to step in and act as the region’s stabilising force.Go through the Question This sounds way too apparent to say. The nation states created by the west will collapse, Stratfor predict, with some countries devolving into factions at war with each other.īut the report highlights while a power vacuum will continue to exist, jihadist groups will be contained by internal divisions. This will lead to a powerful alliance with America, which will look to shore up relationships with a stabilising force. “In the second half of the decade, this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories,” it warns. Such a move will be bad news for Russia as Poland is predicted to come out as the leader of an anti-Russia coalition that would, significantly, include Romania during the first half of this decade, Stratfor state. The eastern European state will not only continue such growth but will emerge as a key player as it diversifies its trade relationships. Poland will not only increase its influence within Europe but also further afield.Īccording to Stratfor, Poland has had impressive economic and political growth in recent years. “It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.”Ĭountries including Poland, Hungary and Romania will also look to recover territory gained by Russia throughout various times in history. “We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia,” the report warns. While Russia won’t split up as such, Moscow’s influence will weaken significantly, which in turn will create a raft of semi autonomous regions. Rising military cost, declining oil prices and internal issues will all weaken Russia further with its inability to control the federation creating a vacuum. Such action will make its neighbours anxious both in terms of national security and rapidly shifting economic policies. “Russia will also seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers,” the forecast predicts. Seeing itself under the gun, it will appear even more aggressive and territorial as it continues to exert its power internally and externally, but it will come at a cost. The next decade will see Russia “seeking to secure itself” before economic decline hits, Stratfor warn as it continues to act aggressively in the region. Sorry, Vladimir Putin things aren’t looking great for Russia. Nations will increasingly adopt protectionist policies as well as look at ways of further securing borders, something which has already begun to take place as Europe grapples with the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. While the EU will continue to exist, its political and miliary operations “will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in Increased nationalism and a rise in Euro scepticism will also hurt the EU with countries looking at solving their own problems before looking outward.
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The European Union will never return to full strength following last year’s financial crisis and will remain largely divided for the next decade. “The main political tendency will be away from multinational solutions to a greater nationalism driven by divergent and diverging economic, social and cultural forces,” Stratfor warns.
National leaders will find themselves under increasing pressure from its people, putting a strain on inter-country relationships.
Germany has already seen a rise in nationalism and anti-refugee sentiment.Įurope’s diverse systems and demographics will continue to place enormous strain on EU’s institutions. However it predicts many countries face tough times ahead with war, changing politics and declining economies all playing a part in the global shake up that lay ahead. Stratfor, which successfully predicted Europe’s inability to cope with the financial crisis and the US-jihadi war, also predicts the US, while taking a step back from global issues, is set to remain the top pre-eminent power. Some of the predictions have already begun to come true, including that the EU will be hit with a range of problems - like a rise in nationalism and social unrest - and a slowing down of the Chinese economy. The Decade Forecast report, compiled by private-intelligence firm Stratfor, reveals the issues set to emerge across the globe within the next decade. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. THE world’s superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020.